Evidence, Visualization, and Biases

Global Strategic Trends, part 2

Robert W. Walker

2025-11-11

A Prompt from Last Time and a Bit of Augmentation

What is the value of this?

Introducing causality….

Augmented Analysis with Claude

The Plot in Esquisse

Some Goals:

The aforementioned is one example of a through-line. Also, we should never forget this is an inherently British assessment.

What assumptions are required for the pathway? Are they stated or unstated?
What does the pathway in question look like?
How might we know a pathway is emerging?
How do we determine differentiators among pathways?
What would we want to measure?
What are indicators which help show what direction we are going?
What has been missed? Are there overlooked alternatives?

Consider this alongside the idea of claims tied to evidence by warrants with appropriate qualification.

Setting the Context for GST 7

Note the data of dissemination.

GST 6

Image

A Model

Six Drivers and Five Core Contradictions

Impact and Uncertainty

Cross-Impacts

Four Future Worlds

Five Pathways

Global Strategic Trends: Graphics

Splitting Up the World

Regions

ESAS
SEAS
CAS
SWAS
AFR
RUS
EUR
CAC
NA

MapESA

MapSEA

MapCA

MapSWA

MapAFR

MapRUS

PopEUR

MapCAC

MapNA

Three Areas

Demographic Breakdown
Digital Usage
Climate, or ….

Demographics

ESAS
SEAS
CAS
SWAS
AFR
RUS
EUR
CAC
NA

PopESA

PopSEA

PopCA

PopSWA

PopAFR

PopRUS

PopEUR

PopCAC

PopNA

Digital

ESAS
SEAS
CAS
SWAS
AFR
RUS
EUR
CAC
NA

DigESA

DigSEA

DigCA

DigSWA

DigAFR

DigRUS

DigEUR

DigCAC

DigNA

Third Thing

ESAS
SEAS
CAS
SWAS
AFR
RUS
EUR
CAC
NA

ClimateESA

ClimateSEA

ClimateCA

ClimateSWA

EnerAFR

WheatRUS

MigEUR

ClimCAC

DrugsNA

Arctic
Antarctica
Oceans
Space
Cyberspace

The Arctic

Claims
Oil/Gas
Ships

Claims

Oil/Gas

Ships

Antarctica

Claims
Tourism

Claims

Tourism

The Oceans

The Oceans

Level Rise
Undiscovered
Exploration

Levels

Oil/Gas

Permits

Space/Orbits

Map
Companies
Satellites

Orbits

Companies

Satellites

Cyberspace

Cyberspace

Usage
Companies
Cyberwar

Usage

Information

Incidents

Themes

Society
Economy
Environment
Information and Technology
Conflict and Security

Themes

Society

Demography
Urbanisation
Religions

Pop Dist

Urbans

World Religions

Economics

GDPs/Companies
Employment

GDP/MC

Employment

Environment and Ecology

Environmental Concerns

Temperatures
Power

Global Temps

Energy

Info Tech

Transport
Death

Global Transport

Causes

Conflict and Security

image credit: page 419

Conflict and Security

Military Expenditures
Rare Earths

Regional Spend

Minerals

The Page on Global Strategic Trends

References are all in the report.